Background: The roots of adult hypertension go back to childhood. This study aimed to examine the independent effects of physical, behavioural and genetic factors identified in childhood and mid-adulthood for prediction of adult hypertension.
Methods: The study subjects were participants of the Kaunas Cardiovascular Risk Cohort study started in 1977 (n = 1082, age 12-13 years). In 2012, a total of 507 individuals (63.9% of eligible sample) participated in the 35-year follow-up survey. Health examination involved measurements of blood pressure (BP), anthropometric parameters, and interview about health behaviours. Subjects were genotyped for AGT (M235T), ACE (I/D, rs4340), ADM (rs7129220), and CACNB2 (rs12258967) genes polymorphisms. A genetic risk score was calculated as the sum of the number of risk alleles at each of four single nucleotide polymorphisms.
Results: AGT TT genotype male carriers had the highest mean values of systolic BP in childhood. In females, ADM genotype AA was associated with the highest values of systolic and diastolic BP, while CACNB2 genotype CC carriers had the highest values of diastolic BP in childhood. Systolic and diastolic BP in childhood, gain in BMI from childhood to adulthood, and risky alcohol consumption predicted hypertension in middle-aged men. In women, genetic risk score together with diastolic BP in childhood and gain in BMI were significant predictors of adult hypertension. The comparison of four nested logistic regression models showed that the prediction of hypertension improved significantly after the addition of BMI gain. Genetic risk score had a relatively weak effect on the improvement of the model performance in women.
Conclusions: BP in childhood and the gain in BMI from childhood to adulthood were significant predictors of adult hypertension in both genders. Genetic risk score in women and risky alcohol consumption in men were independently related with the risk of adult hypertension.